10/27/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The practice of "red boarding" has been around since folks began wagering on the sport of horse racing. Simply stated, it's the process of making a case for the winner after a race has been made official, regardless of how poor the horse looked on paper.
Most people look down on this course of action, especially if done in a way that promotes arrogance, but it does have its place in the game. Astute handicappers usually plow through previous past performances to uncover how a horse was able to win, using speed and/or pace figures, track conditions, class ratings, jockey tactics and every other handicapping method under the sun.
The 2008 version of the Breeders' Cup was run over two days this past weekend with five of the 14 races on Friday. Since nine more championship events were to be run the following day, red boarding that day's card was perhaps the most useful tool in figuring out how to play the races on Saturday, and it all had to do with the new synthetic surface at Santa Anita called Pro-Ride.
There have been other types of synthetics installed at racetracks around the country, beginning with 1988's Equitrack surface at Remington Park. Turfway Park refurbished its dirt surface with Polytrack in 2005, and many other tracks have followed suit the past couple of years.
Pro-Ride is the latest surface to be put in place, and what a day it was for the so-called red boarders as the track provided one of the most dramatic biases in the history of the Breeders' Cup.
The three non-traditional dirt races on Friday produced two dominating performances by a pair of favorites in Stardom Bound and Zenyatta, and a victory in the Filly and Mare Sprint by Ventura, who was the second choice in the wagering.
The three fillies came into their respective events with a combined one career start on real dirt in 26 career races. Stardom Bound and Zenyatta had each proven victorious in their last starts on Pro-Ride, while Ventura had two victories in three starts on synthetics.
More important than how these horses had done on the "fake" dirt was how the track bias played out all afternoon. Stardom Bound was 12th in a 13-horse field after four furlongs, Zenyatta was last of eighth horses at the half-mile marker, and Ventura was in 10th position at that spot.
All three champions made their moves from the back of the pack and very far away from the rail. On top of that, only one of the 12 horses that were first, second, third or fourth at the half finished the race in the money.
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE TRACK BIAS
Attacking Saturday's card was made much easier after factoring in how biased the Pro-Ride surface had been the previous day.
The two favorites in the Marathon were complete throw-outs. The 7-5 choice Sixties Icon had yet to race on synthetics and was an easy toss out at the price, since one should never bet a favorite doing something he's never done before. The 3-1 second choice Zappa also had zero chance, as he was going to be close up to the pace.
The field had now been reduced to five playable horses and four of the five ran first, second, third and fourth completing a $2 superfecta just short of $8,000.
More significantly, even with tremendously slow early fractions, the horses in first, second and third after one mile finished eighth and last, seventh and sixth.
The knowledge of how the track was playing set the stage for the next Pro-Ride event - the Dirt Mile.
Well Armed, the 6-5 favorite, had absolutely no chance to succeed despite three graded victories in his last five races. The reason? He likes to race on the front end.
Lewis Michael, coming off a victory in the Pat O'Brien Handicap at Del Mar, looked like a contender in the middle of the week but after drawing the rail in this 12-horse field, could be tossed aside as well.
In fact, only four horses - Pyro, Albertus Maximus, Rebellion and Lord Admiral - were playable based on their running styles and the track bias. The two most accomplished of the four, Albertus Maximus and Rebellion, finished one-two and combined for a $218.60 exacta after being well placed in ninth and 12th with only two furlongs remaining.
The Juvenile was the ugly duckling event of the day, as the three colts that held the top three spots at the half ended up in that very same order under the wire. Nonetheless, Midshipman, Square Eddie and Street Hero were also the only horses in the field with grade one victories on synthetics. The other two colts bet below 15-1, Munnings and Bushranger, had zero experience on non- traditional dirt tracks and they finished 10th and 11th in the field of 12.
The public was right on in the Sprint backing Midnight Lute (5-2) after having run just one race since last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint. The Bob Baffert- trained champion was dead last after a quarter in 21 1/5, but easily stormed to the top through the stretch.
Perhaps the most impressive performance of the day came from the second place finisher, Fatal Bullet, bucking the bias by holding onto the second spot after hitting the half in 43 4/5. But the son of Red Bullet had a huge factor working in his favor: seven straight victories on synthetics. His lone three defeats all came on either the real stuff or the turf and he was beaten a combined 34 -lengths in those events.
Since the Pro-Ride surface resembles more of a turf course than traditional dirt, the Europeans had a big edge when it came to the Classic. The winners of most races across the continent usually come from off the pace, and the one making the last and final move frequently gets the victory.
Not only did milers Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator appreciate the added distance, they finished first and second just because they made their winning bids well after Colonel John and Curlin moved into contention.
To accentuate this point even further, Duke of Marmalade - the lowest priced horse of the three European-based charges and the only one to have raced 10 panels - finished a well-beaten ninth only because he challenged the early lead and faltered.
Also, who would have ever thought that Curlin would not just lose the Classic, but be outrun by Tiago even after reaching the front with just one furlong to go?
All in all, the eight Pro-Ride Breeders' Cup winners came into the weekend with just 12 career races on traditional dirt. And one horse, Midnight Lute, ran nine of the 12.
A new era of horse racing has begun, and now that the world knows how it played out, the 2009 Breeders' Cup should be an extremely profitable one since Santa Anita will once again be hosting the festivities.
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MySportsbook.com favors Bears, Bengals, Chargers and Colts to remain perfect
LAS VEGAS , Sept. 28 - Two big match-ups of undefeated teams have fans salivating at the Week Four schedule in the NFL. The Chicago Bears stifling defense looks to provide a less than hospitable welcome to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a battle of two 3-0 teams in the NFC conference. In the AFC, the San Diego Chargers (2-0) head to Maryland to face the surprising Baltimore Ravens (3-0) as both try to keep pace atop the conference standings. Betting Lines makers at MySportsbook.com, online sportsbook and casino, have set the Bears as 3.5 point favorites while the Chargers are a 2.5 point bet.
Of the three remaining undefeated teams, only one, New Orleans, enters this week's game as an underdog. Despite an emotional and resounding win over Atlanta on Monday night, the Saints are a 7.5 point underdog against the struggling Carolina Panthers. Indianapolis looks to stay perfect when they face the New York Jets as a 9 point road favorite while the Cincinnati Bengals are a 6 point favorite at home to the New England Patriots.
Six teams enter the week still looking for their first win, with a seventh, Tampa Bay, on a bye week. The prospect of dropping another game would not bode well for a potential playoff run. Since 1990, just three teams -- the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Detroit Lions and 1998 Buffalo Bills -- have overcome losing their first three games of the season to earn a postseason berth. And only the Chargers managed to accomplish the feat after starting 0-4.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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