11/20/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers will look to remain above the fray in the AFC North on Thursday night, when Mike Tomlin's team welcomes the struggling Cincinnati Bengals to Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh opens Week 12 with a one-game advantage on its only meaningful competition, the 6-4 Baltimore Ravens, in the AFC North.
The Steelers moved a game up on Baltimore on Sunday, outlasting the Chargers, 11-10, in a thriller won on a 32-yard Jeff Reed field goal with 11 seconds to play. In a game played partially in snowy conditions, Pittsburgh managed to beat the Bolts despite not being credited with a touchdown on the day.
What should have been a Troy Polamalu fumble return for a TD on the game's final play was incorrectly taken off the board due to a misinterpreted penalty on San Diego, but that mistake didn't change the fact that the Black and Gold turned in another sensational defensive performance.
Pittsburgh limited a talented San Diego attack to just 213 net yards on the day, including 57 yards on 18 carries from LaDainian Tomlinson, and intercepted Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers twice on the afternoon.
The victory, coupled with the Ravens' 30-10 loss at the Giants, helped strengthen the Steelers' chances of both winning the division and securing an all-important first-round playoff bye.
Mike Tomlin's squad currently sits in a tie with the similarly 7-3 Jets for the No. 2 seed in the AFC, behind only the 10-0 Titans.
A win over the Bengals would be an important springboard for the Steelers as they begin an arduous four-game stretch that includes trips to meet the Patriots (11/30), Ravens (12/14), and Titans (12/21), as well as a home contest versus the resurgent Cowboys (12/7).
Cincinnati's goal on Thursday night will be avoiding defeat for a third straight week, which would be something of an achievement for a club that began the year with eight consecutive losses.
The Bengals very nearly extended their winning streak to two this past Sunday, but Shayne Graham's 47-yard field goal attempt in the closing seconds of overtime drifted wide right to keep Marvin Lewis and company from returning to the win column.
The tie was the NFL's first since Nov. 10, 2002, when the Steelers and Falcons dueled to a 34-34 deadlock, and was Cincinnati's first tie since a 31-31 result with the Houston Oilers on Nov. 9, 1969.
Expected to make his sixth start of the year for the Bengals at quarterback, and fifth consecutive, is Ryan Fitzpatrick. No. 1 quarterback Carson Palmer remains sidelined by a persistent elbow injury, and has been ruled out for Thursday though he has yet to be placed on season-ending injured reserve.
SERIES HISTORY
The Steelers lead the all-time regular season series with the Bengals, 46-30, and have won four straight over Cincinnati since last losing a game in the series, at home in 2006. Pittsburgh was a 38-10 road winner when the clubs met in Week 7, and swept last year's home-and-home, including a 24-10 home decision in Week 13.
In addition to their regular season advantage, the Steelers also scored a 31-17 road win over the Bengals in the 2005 playoffs.
Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 3-9 all-time against the Steelers, while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin is 3-0 against both Lewis and Cincinnati as a head coach.
WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
Fitzpatrick (1050 passing yards, 5 TD, 6 INT) comes off his best passing day as a Bengal, as he completed 29-of-44 passes for 261 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the loss to the Eagles. The Harvard product's 89.3 passer rating was the best of his starting career. Fitzpatrick's big day also meant good things for wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh (73 receptions, 4 TD), who caught 12 balls for a season-high 149 yards and a touchdown. Houshmandzadeh has at least six receptions in each of his last eight contests. Running mate Chad Johnson (41 receptions, 4 TD) had another quiet day with four grabs for 34 yards, however. In the running game, Cedric Benson (283 rushing yards, 1 TD, 10 receptions) managed just 23 carries for 42 yards on the ground, but had six receptions for 37 yards out of the backfield. The Bengals are 30th in the league in both rushing offense (83.7 yards per game) and passing offense (158.9 yards per game). The Cincinnati o-line has arguably been the offense's biggest problem, surrendering 38 sacks through 10 games.
Pittsburgh comes into Week 12 ranked No. 1 in the league in total defense (237.6 yards per game), rushing defense (68.9 yards per game), passing defense (168.7 yards per game), yards allowed per carry (3.0), rushes surrendered of 20 yards or longer (1), is tied for the league lead in sacks (36), and is No. 2 in scoring defense (15 points per game). In other words, the Steeler "D" is fairly good. The pass rush has been the strength of the club all year, with outside linebackers James Harrison (67 tackles, 12 sacks, 1 INT) and LaMarr Woodley (40 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 1 INT) leading the way. Harrison had a sack and an interception of the Chargers' Philip Rivers last week. The run-stopping effort has been fueled by nose tackle Casey Hampton (11 tackles) and end Aaron Smith (33 tackles, 4 sacks) up front, with inside linebackers James Farrior (70 tackles, 2 sacks) and Larry Foote (37 tackles, 1.5 sacks) cleaning up behind them. If the group has a weakness, it is probably in coverage, though cornerbacks William Gay (20 tackles) and Ike Taylor (43 tackles) held their own last week and hard-hitting strong safety Troy Polamalu (43 tackles, 4 INT) came up with a dazzling interception. The Steelers could get cornerback Deshea Townsend (hamstring) back this week, but Bryant McFadden (forearm) remains out.
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
The Steelers come off a week in which they racked up 24 first downs and 410 net yards without a turnover, but still couldn't manage a touchdown against the Chargers. With the offense now having gone six quarters without a TD, finishing off drives will be job number one for Ben Roethlisberger (1990 passing yards, 10 TD, 11 INT) and company this week. Roethlisberger completed 31-of-41 passes for 308 yards in less-than-ideal weather conditions, but was sacked four times to boost the offensive line's bloated number of sacks allowed on the year to 35. No. 1 wideout Hines Ward (53 receptions, 5 TD) had a big game with 11 catches for 124 yards, while Santonio Holmes (34 receptions, 2 TD) hauled in five balls for 63 yards on the other side. Tight end Matt Spaeth (15 receptions), subbing for the injured Heath Miller (21 receptions, 1 TD), had his best game as a pro with six receptions totaling 55 yards. Miller (ankle) is considered questionable for Thursday. The Steelers' bread-and-butter remains running the football as evidenced by Willie Parker's 25-carry, 115-yard effort against the Chargers. The triple-digit effort was Parker's first since a Week 2 win over the Browns.
Roethlisberger has struggled most this season when opponents have been able to apply pressure to him, but the Bengals, who rank next-to-last in the NFL with just 11 sacks, don't look like a great candidate to get that job done. Cincinnati sacked the Eagles' Donovan McNabb just twice in five full quarters last week, with end Robert Geathers (36 tackles, 2.5 sacks) breaking through for his second sack in as many weeks. A Bengals secondary that had struggled to make plays for much of the year also intercepted McNabb three times, with cornerback Johnathan Joseph (42 tackles, 1 INT) and recently acquired safety Chris Crocker (4 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) both notching picks. The Bengals are No. 15 in the league against the pass (206.6 yards per game) as Week 12 commences. Cincinnati is just 23rd versus the run (131.1 yards per game), but held Brian Westbrook and the Eagles' ground attack in check last week. The Birds managed just 68 yards on 18 carries, with linebackers Brandon Johnson (37 tackles, 1 INT) and Dhani Jones (74 tackles, 1 INT) combining for 11 tackles to help fuel the effort.
FANTASY FOCUS
Apart from Houshmandzadeh, who has consistently put up numbers this season (many of them in garbage time), the Bengals have been short on reliable fantasy starters. Johnson has had an extremely disappointing year, Fitzpatrick doesn't have the passing numbers to be deemed a viable option, and while Benson has offered the running game a spark, don't look for him to run wild against the hard-hitting Steelers run-stopping group. The Bengals defense should remain on waiver wires, as should kicker Shayne Graham.
It's a great week to start Steelers, since the Bengals don't put much pressure on the quarterback and Roethlisberger and his receivers should operate without much resistance. The same goes for Parker, who appears destined to put up triple-digits. Tight end Heath Miller is worth considering too, though you'll have to consult the injury report to make sure his ankle will allow him to go. The Steelers defense remains a must-start, as does the deadly accurate Reed.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Steelers are probably looking ahead beyond the Bengals, but that's actually a good thing for Pittsburgh. Fully aware of the difficult schedule the next month will present, the Steelers know they need to stockpile one more win against an inferior opponent that hasn't often answered the bell in terms of effort this year. Fitzpatrick will spend the game running for his life thanks to the Steelers pass rush and his own weak line, Benson won't be able to complement him, and the Bengals defense won't be able to handle either Parker or the Pittsburgh receivers for any length of time. Look for the Steelers to run away and hide in a game they simply must have.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Steelers 31, Bengals 7
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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